Note: I still haven't seen some of the key nominees (like The Wrestler, which won't open in Houston until the 16th), so as far as who I think "should" win, my opinions on the nominees aren't fully developed. I'm hoping to squeeze in Revolutionary Road, and I'll edit this post if I do. Anyways, FOR NOW...
Best Picture-Drama:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- The Reader
- Revolutionary Road
- Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Horse: Revolutionary Road
No Chance in Hell: The Reader
Best Picture - Musical or Comedy:
- Burn After Reading
- Happy-Go-Lucky
- In Bruges
- Mamma Mia!
- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Should Win: In Bruges
The Dark Horse: Happy Go Lucky
No Chance in Hell: Mamma Mia!
Best Actor - Drama:
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
- Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
- Sean Penn, Milk
- Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should Win: Frank Langella
The Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio
No Chance in Hell: no one, though Brad Pitt's chances are the slimmest.
Best Actress - Drama:
- Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
- Angelina Jolie, Changeling
- Meryl Streep, Doubt
- Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
- Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Should Win: Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway
The Darkhorse: Kristin Scott Thomas
No Chance in Hell: Angelina Jolie (hahahaha)
Best Actor - Musical or Comedy:
- Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Colin Farrell, In Bruges
- James Franco, Pineapple Express
- Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
- Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Should Win: Colin Farrell
The Dark Horse: Dustin Hoffman
No Chance in Hell: Brendan Gleeson
Best Actress - Musical or Comedy:
- Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
- Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
- Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
- Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey
Should Win: Sally Hawkins
The Dark Horse: Rebecca Hall
No Chance in Hell: Emma Thompson
Best Supporting Actor:
- Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
- Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
- Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger
The Dark Horse: Robert Downey Jr.
No Chance in Hell: everyone whose name isn't Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress:
- Amy Adams, Doubt
- Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Viola Davis, Doubt
- Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
- Kate Winslet, The Reader
Should Win: Penelope Cruz
The Dark Horse: Marisa Tomei or Viola Davis
No Chance in Hell: Amy Adams
Best Director:
- Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
- Stephen Daldry, The Reader
- David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
- Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Should Win: Danny Boyle
The Dark Horse: Sam Mendes
No Chance in Hell: Ron Howard and Stephen Daldry
Best Screenplay (original or adapted):
- Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
- David Hare, The Reader
- Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
- Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Should Win: Simon Beaufoy
The Dark Horse: John Patrick Shanley
No Chance in Hell: David Hare
Best Foreign Language Film:
- The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
- Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
- Gomorrah (Italy)
- I've Loved You So Long (France)
- Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
Should Win: I've Loved You So Long (it's the only one I've seen)
The Dark Horse: I've Loved You So Long
No Chance in Hell: Germany and Sweden
Best Animated Film:
- Bolt
- Kung Fu Panda
- WALL-E
Should Win: WALL-E
The Dark Horse: no one
No Chance In Hell: no one, even though WALL-E is a sure bet
Best Original Score:
- Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Clint Eastwood, Changeling
- James Newton Howard, Defiance
- A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
- Hans Zimmer, Frost/Nixon
Should Win: Desplat or AR Rahman
The Dark Horse: James Newton Howard
No Chance in Hell: Hans Zimmer
Best Original Song:
- "Down to Earth," WALL-E; music by Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman; lyrics by Peter Gabriel
- "Gran Torino," Gran Torino; music by Clint Eastwood, Jamie Cullum, Kyle Eastwood, Michael Stevens; lyrics by Kyle Eastwood, Michael Stevens
- "I Thought I Lost You," Bolt; music & lyrics by Miley Cyrus, Jeffrey Steele
- "Once in a Lifetime," Cadillac Records; music & lyrics by Beyoncé Knowles, Amanda Ghost, Scott McFarnon, Ian Dench, James Dring, Jody Street
- "The Wrestler," The Wrestler; music & lyrics by Bruce Springsteen
Should Win: The Wrestler (Yes, I've heard the song)
The Dark Horse: Down to Earth and I Thought I Lost You
No Chance in Hell: Once in a Life Time
TELEVISION:
Best Drama Series:
- Dexter
- House
- In Treatment
- Mad Men
- True Blood
Should Win: Mad Men
The Dark Horse: In Treatment
No Chance in Hell: True Blood
Actress in a Television Series - Drama:
- Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
- Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
- January Jones, Mad Men
- Anna Paquin, True Blood
- Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
Should Win: January Jones
The Dark Horse: January Jones
No Chance in Hell: Anna Paquin
Actor in a Television Series - Drama:
- Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment
- Michael C. Hall, Dexter
- Jon Hamm, Mad Men
- Hugh Laurie, House
- Jonathan Rhys Meyers, The Tudors
Should Win: Jon Hamm
The Dark Horse:Michael C. Hall
No Chance in Hell: Jonathan Rhys Meyers
Best Television Series - Musical or Comedy:
- 30 Rock
- Californication
- Entourage
- The Office
- Weeds
Should Win: 30 Rock
The Dark Horse: no one
No Chance in Hell: Californication
Actress in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy:
- Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?
- America Ferrera, Ugly Betty
- Tina Fey, 30 Rock
- Debra Messing, The Starter Wife
- Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
Should Win: Tina Fey
The Dark Horse: America Ferrera
No Chance in Hell: Debra Messing
Actor in a Television Series: Musical or Comedy:
- Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
- Steve Carell, The Office
- Kevin Connolly, Entourage
- David Duchovny, Californication
- Tony Shalhoub, Monk
Should Win: Alec Baldwin
The Dark Horse: David Duchovny
No Chance in Hell: Kevin Connolly
Best Mini Series or Motion Picture made for Television:
- A Raisin in the Sun
- Bernard and Doris
- Cranford
- John Adams
- Recount
Should Win: I haven't seen any of these
The Dark Horse: ?Recount
No Chance in Hell: everything not titled John Adams or Recount
Actress in a Mini Series or Motion Picture made for Television:
- Judi Dench, Cranford
- Catherine Keener, An American Crime
- Laura Linney, John Adams
- Shirley MacLaine, Coco Chanel
- Susan Sarandon, Bernard and Doris
The Dark Horse: Judi Dench
No Chance in Hell: Shirley MacLaine
Actor in a Mini Series or Motion Picture made for Television:
- Ralph Fiennes, Bernard and Doris
- Paul Giamatti, John Adams
- Kevin Spacey, Recount
- Kiefer Sutherland, 24: Redemption
- Tom Wilkinson, Recount
The Dark Horse: Tom Wilkinson
No Chance in Hell: ???????????????????????
Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini Series, or Motion Picture made for Television:
- Eileen Atkins, Cranford
- Laura Dern, Recount
- Melissa George, In Treatment
- Rachel Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters
- Dianne Wiest, In Treatment
The Dark Horse: Laura Dern
No Chance in Hell:??????????????
Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini Series, or Motion Picture made for Television:
- Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
- Denis Leary, Recount
- Jeremy Piven, Entourage
- Blair Underwood, In Treatment
- Tom Wilkinson, John Adams
Should Win: Jeremy Piven (Yup, I jumped on the bandwagon)
The Dark Horse: Tom Wilkinson
No Chance in Hell: Denis Leary
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